Complex interplay between intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of long-term survival trends in southern elephant seals

BACKGROUND: Determining the relative contribution of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to fluctuations in population size, trends and demographic composition is analytically complex. It is often only possible to examine the combined effects of these factors through measurements made over long periods, spanning an array of population densities or levels of food availability. Using age-structured mark-recapture models and datasets spanning five decades (1950–1999), and two periods of differing relative population density, we estimated age-specific probabilities of survival and examined the combined effects of population density and environmental conditions on juvenile survival of southern elephant seals at Macquarie Island. RESULTS: First-year survival decreased with density during the period of highest population size, and survival increased during years when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) anomaly (deviation from a 50-year mean) during the mother's previous foraging trip to sea was positive (i.e., El Niño). However, when environmental stochasticity and density were considered together, the effect of density on first-year survival effectively disappeared. Ignoring density effects also leads to models placing too much emphasis on the environmental conditions prevailing during the naïve pup's first year at sea. CONCLUSION: Our analyses revealed that both the state of the environment and population density combine to modify juvenile survival, but that the degree to which these processes contributed to the variation observed was interactive and complex. This underlines the importance of evaluating the relative contribution of both the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that regulate animal populations because false conclusions regarding the importance of population regulation may be reached if they are examined in isolation

A Prolific Solvate Former, Galunisertib, under the Pressure of Crystal Structure Prediction, Produces Ten Diverse Polymorphs

The solid form screening of galunisertib produced many solvates, prompting an extensive investigation into possible risks to the development of the favored monohydrate form. Inspired by crystal structure prediction, the search for neat polymorphs was expanded to an unusual range of experiments, including melt crystallization under pressure, to work around solvate formation and the thermal instability of the molecule. Ten polymorphs of galunisertib were found; however, the structure predicted to be the most stable has yet to be obtained. We present the crystal structures of all ten unsolvated polymorphs of galunisertib, showing how state-of-the-art characterization methods can be combined with emerging computational modeling techniques to produce a complete structure landscape and assess the risk of late-appearing, more stable polymorphs. The exceptional conformational polymorphism of this prolific solvate former invites further development of methods, computational and experimental, that are applicable to larger, flexible molecules with complex solid form landscapes

Effect of multivitamin and multimineral supplementation on cognitive function in men and women aged 65 years and over : a randomised controlled trial

Background: Observational studies have frequently reported an association between cognitive function and nutrition in later life but randomised trials of B vitamins and antioxidant supplements have mostly found no beneficial effect. We examined the effect of daily supplementation with 11 vitamins and 5 minerals on cognitive function in older adults to assess the possibility that this could help to prevent cognitive decline. Methods: The study was carried out as part of a randomised double blind placebo controlled trial of micronutrient supplementation based in six primary care health centres in North East Scotland. 910 men and women aged 65 years and over living in the community were recruited and randomised: 456 to active treatment and 454 to placebo. The active treatment consisted of a single tablet containing eleven vitamins and five minerals in amounts ranging from 50–210 % of the UK Reference Nutrient Intake or matching placebo tablet taken daily for 12 months. Digit span forward and verbal fluency tests, which assess immediate memory and executive functioning respectively, were conducted at the start and end of the intervention period. Risk of micronutrient deficiency at baseline was assessed by a simple risk questionnaire. Results: For digit span forward there was no evidence of an effect of supplements in all participants or in sub-groups defined by age or risk of deficiency. For verbal fluency there was no evidence of a beneficial effect in the whole study population but there was weak evidence for a beneficial effect of supplementation in the two pre-specified subgroups: in those aged 75 years and over (n 290; mean difference between supplemented and placebo groups 2.8 (95% CI -0.6, 6.2) units) and in those at increased risk of micronutrient deficiency assessed by the risk questionnaire (n 260; mean difference between supplemented and placebo groups 2.5 (95% CI -1.0, 6.1) units). Conclusion: The results provide no evidence for a beneficial effect of daily multivitamin and multimineral supplements on these domains of cognitive function in community-living people over 65 years. However, the possibility of beneficial effects in older people and those at greater risk of nutritional deficiency deserves further attention.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Contrasting Polymorphism of Related Small Molecule Drugs Correlated and Guided by the Computed Crystal Energy Landscape

Solid form screening and crystal structure prediction (CSP) calculations were carried out on two related molecules, 3-(4-(benzo[d]isoxazole-3-yl)piperazin-1-yl)-2,2-dimethylpropanoic acid (B5) and 3-(4-dibenzo[b,f][1,4]oxepin-11-yl-piperazin-1-yl)-2,2-dimethylpropanoic acid (DB7). Only one anhydrate form was crystallized for B5, whereas multiple solid forms, including three neat polymorphs, were found for DB7. The crystal structure of B5 is P21/n Z′ = 1 with intramolecular hydrogen bonding, whereas Forms I and II of DB7 are conformational polymorphs with distinct Z′ = 1 P1̅ structures and intermolecular hydrogen bonds. A disordered structure for Form III of DB7 is proposed, based on CSP-generated structures which gave a promising match to the X-ray powder diffraction and solid state NMR data for this metastable form. The differences in the hydrogen bonding and experimental solid form landscapes of the two molecules appear to arise from the dominance of the self-assembly of the benzoisoxazolepiperazinyl and dibenzoxepinylpiperazinyl fragments and the consequent inability to produce amorphous or solvate forms as intermediates for B5. There is a subtle balance between the intramolecular conformational energy and the intermolecular dispersion, electrostatic and polarization interactions apparent in the analysis of the computationally generated thermodynamically competitive structures, which makes their relative stability quite sensitive to the computational method used. The value of simultaneously exploring the computationally and experimentally generated solid form landscapes of molecules in pharmaceutical development is discussed